Is Android poised for a US comeback?

Google likes to talk about how many Android devices there are out there (“3 billion active devices and counting” as recently as April), and it’s true: Android’s consistently maintained a 70ish percent share of the global mobile OS market since 2017. That’s not the whole story, though, and especially not in the US. Stateside, more than half of new smartphone sales are iPhones. Young people in America in particular really gravitate to iOS; last year, AP Phones Editor Will wrote about how US teens’ preference for iOS illustrated a potential death spiral for Android in America.

But this week, we saw some encouraging signs that Android is making gains in the premium space. Pixel uptake has been historically strong this year in the US, and internationally, the Samsung Galaxy S24 cracked the top 10 list for best-selling smartphones last quarter — the first time a Samsung flagship has graced that list since 2018. That’s especially impressive given the iPhone 16’s launch during the same period. It could turn out to be a fluke, but an Android optimist might take this data as a sign that Apple’s dominance in the high-end and US markets is starting to slip.

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Things are looking up for Android

The strongest indicator that things are getting better for Android in the US is one we really should take with a grain of salt. Web analytics firm Statcounter published a chart this week showing that Google’s overall mobile market share in North America shot from under five percent in September to nearly 13 percent in October. Apple’s share fell from about 56 percent to 51 percent in the same period. Statcounter analyzes web traffic data to determine which devices people are using month to month, so this isn’t hard sales data. But assuming Statcounter didn’t experience a very pronounced glitch, its findings imply something really is going on here.

I’m admittedly incredulous of Statcounter’s findings, but they do track with recent developments. In October, Counterpoint Research published its findings that the third quarter of 2024 was Google’s best quarter ever for smartphone sales. And as reported by 9to5Google, Counterpoint separately stated that Google’s US smartphone shipments were up 20 percent year over year last quarter — and Apple’s were down two percent. Motorola saw similar gains to Google.

Counterpoint’s data shows Samsung took a considerable year-over-year hit in the US last quarter, which complicates things a little bit; US shipments were down 13 percent. But at the same time, the early-2024 Galaxy S24 was the 10th-best-selling phone in the world last quarter, marking the first time in years a premium Samsung phone has made that list in the past six years.

It’s too early to extrapolate trends from any of this, but unless Google’s 24Q3 performance was a fluke, it paints the picture of a shifting US smartphone market — to Google’s benefit. And as Will points out, what’s good for Pixel is good for Android on the whole: “this sort of forward momentum is exactly what Google needs to cement itself as the ‘third option’ alongside Samsung and Apple,” he writes. Google’s also started selling refurbished older Pixels, and its upcoming Pixel 9a is shaping up to be a banger. Google is onto something here, even if it didn’t nearly triple its North American market share in the span of a month the way Statcounter’s data implies.

It’s starting to feel like Android’s poised for a comeback in the US.

It’s hard to know what might cause shifts like these. Counterpoint analyst Maurice Khlaehne reckons AI functionality might be driving sales, and Google’s certainly leaning into AI features in its Pixel 9 marketing. At the same time, the Android and iPhone experience has been getting more and more similar: last year’s iPhone 15 models were the first to come with USB-C charging, and this year’s iOS 18 includes theming options that are more than a little like features Android’s been exploring since 2021. RCS could also have something to do with it; now that basically every modern smartphone has texting features like high-quality media attachments and typing indicators, iMessage isn’t quite the must-have exclusive feature it used to be.

Whatever the reason, it’s starting to feel like Android’s poised for a comeback in the US, and if a string of intriguing leaks from last week is anything to go by, Google’s in a good spot to capitalize on this momentum. Turning up the heat on market leader Apple would help the entire industry: when there’s real competition, big players are forced to innovate year over year to attract customers who have viable options elsewhere. I just hope AI features aren’t really the driving force — I’d much rather see generational leaps in battery life and camera performance than more capable image generator apps, and I don’t think I’m alone there.

Quick Share could be coming to Macs; Android 15 gets its first update

Google increasing its US marketshare against the iPhone isn’t the only Android-iOS news this week. RCS functionality on iPhones now works a little better with Android phones, and Google’s apparently working to bring a key Android feature to iOS devices. Oh, and Android 15 got its first patch — though it’s not a very exciting one.

Quick Share could be coming to Apple devices. Quick Share, formerly Nearby Share, is Android’s version of Airdrop; it lets you share files with compatible nearby devices. Writing for Android Authority, Mishaal Rahman reports that he found references in Google’s Nearby Github repository to macOS and iOS. The implication is that Google’s working on a Quick Share app for iPhones and Macs, which could further erode Apple’s ecosystem lock-in advantage and push more iPhone customers to give Android a shot.

Emoji reactions from Google Messages now show up correctly on iOS. I actually don’t know what changed to enable this, but previously, emoji text message reactions sent from Android to iOS would show up on the iPhone as a separate text message. Now, as reported by the Verge, emoji reactions sent from either platform show up as intended on both ends. Another little chip in Apple’s garden wall.

The first Android 15 patch landed on Pixel phones this week, squashing a few bugs. It addresses issues with Bluetooth, camera software, screen brightness, and more, so if you’re using a Pixel, be sure to grab it.